2022 ACX Prediction Contest

Scott predictions

The number in parentheses after each event is Scott's prediction for the event. If you leave a question blank, Scott's number will be treated as your submission for that event.

Remember that for events like "Biden approval rating is greater than fifty percent" or "Bitcoin above 100K" without a specified resolution date, the resolution date is December 31st.

Format your predictions as a number between 1 and 99. DON'T ADD ANY EXTRA CHARACTERS, e.g. % or > or ~

US/World

Biden approval rating (as per 538) is greater than fifty percent (40)

At least $250 million in damage from a single round of mass protests in US (10)

PredictIt thinks Joe Biden is most likely 2024 Dem nominee (80)

PredictIt thinks Donald Trump is most likely 2024 GOP nominee (60)

Beijing Olympics happen successfully on schedule (99)

Major flare-up (worse than past 5 years) in Russia/Ukraine conflict (50; also, Matt Yglesias predicts a 40% chance that Russia invades Ukraine)

Major flare-up (worse than past 10 years) in Israel/Palestine conflict (5)

Major flare-up (worse than in past 50 years) in China/Taiwan conflict (5)

Honduran ZEDEs legally crippled to the point where no reasonable person would invest in them further (5)

New ZEDE approved in Honduras (30)

Will Biden’s approval rating (as per 538) be greater than 50% at the end of 2022?: 40%

Will there be at least $250 million in damage from a single round of mass protests in US in 2022?: 10%