Context

• “We’re interested in exploring prediction markets on community notes”
• He reached out after seeing tweet/someone told him. Like predictions markets.
• Resolution concerns a blocker?

In Nathan meeting

• Possibly facing heat with CN not being scalable enough in developing situation
• Really concerned about resolution mechanisms
• They already have a reputation system where u effectively are betting your reputation like a PM. If people disagree with you it decreased you score. (sort of?)
• referenced getting called from Elon etc asking how it was going with dubious claims about the Israel-gaza conflict.
• [Not many people currently submit prediction markets in CN]

Our discussion

• [s] our biggest value add is helping them scale up CN, especially in developing situations which don’t have good sources.
• [N] Easy method where any dubious statement can easily have a source added, would be happy.
• Need to rate a bunch of community notes, and if you agree with the consensus enough you improve your score and eventually unlock the ability to suggest new notes yourself. Seems quite a lot of time and effort (several hours of rating) to unlock the ability to suggest new notes.
• Look through all the new notes -> https://twitter.com/HelpfulNotes
  • Go through and prepare a list where we think we have a matching market that is helpful
  • [n] I almost have the ability to write new notes, so I can just do that before meeting if I unlock in time
    • Got popup saying he is nearly there!! :D

Possible asks:

• level 0: we get ppl to create CN with PMs
• Level 0.5: Ask for API access to “new community notes” and “needs help” so we can experiment with automatically querying for existing or creating new markets for tweets it may be valuable.
  • If we can prove this works well, eventually CN could begin to automatically include them as a suggested note/source
• Level 1: Mention Manifold in CN guide or documentation?
  • “Have Elon tweet a market”
  • Or just tweet about prediction markets from @communitynotes account
• Level 2: Link previews
  • Incorporate
  • show images and refresh every 10 mins
    • [d] This doesn’t actually do anything though if CN contributors aren’t aware of prediction markets. Would also like something in addition to this that helps it become more easy for CN contributors to see relevant markets
    • [d] also not really that much more valuable than the current version which is, “There is no evidence this thing has happened. Prediction markets gave it an 8% chance of happening 2 hours after the tweet was posted.”
  • Particular link card especially for CNs