We have

• $2.56M in the bank

We’re spending

• $1.2M / year
  • 100k * 3 founders salary
  • 200k * ~4 employees salary
  • 100k misc

We’re earning

• ~$1K / month in M$ purchases.

  • From Stripe:

    

Our current runway is

• ~2 years and 1 month

What runway are we aiming for?

• [J]
  • I think 1.5 - 2 years runway is good before we clearly have product-market fit. It’s risky and also slower to hire a big team if we still need to pivot.
  • One heuristic: if we had to switch products entirely (e.g. building Manifold on Solana), would we have enough runway to get to product market fit and 40M+ valuation. We would probably need to hire 1 good Solana eng.
• [A]
  • I think a year from the seed round (so ~11 months now) is plenty.
    • As a business, Manifold is in the network-effect, VC-rocket-fuel, consumer, grow-fast-or-go-home class of companies.
    • If in a year’s time we don’t have the the growth to back our ambitions, then we’ve obviously failed and should start over. But while we’re working on Manifold, we should do what makes sense for this kind of business.
    • My goal isn’t “maximize the chance that Manifold survives” but rather “maximize the EV of working on Manifold”. Failing faster is a good thing.
  • Our initial projections were to hire 6 people off of $2m raised; with Leonis’s additional $400k we can raise that to 8 people.
• [s] I think ~15 months is the sweet spot. I want enough time to fully build out this product and pivot to crypto if we need to. Not sure if we can do both in less than a year.