Metrics
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Signups
- Nov 4th: 175
- Nov 5th: 245
~250 counterfactual signups
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DAUs:
~300 counterfactual DAUs
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YouTube
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Markets
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Most of these markets made it to the top of Trending
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The only market I didn’t Boost (AJW v Cypher) or promote had significantly fewer traders
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Destiny drove the most engagement (duh)
Overall: Numbers look reasonable given the sponsorship, and we can expect additional traffic over the coming weeks from YouTube.
The event
- Format: Debate market w QR code is shown a screen behind the debate stage. Market resolves to change in audience preference, as determined by polls before and after the debate.
- [J] How was the question / resolution criteria? Wouldn’t a simple poll of the audience on who won after be better?
- [s] I thought it actually worked pretty well for people who bothered to understand the format.
- Nearly all markets would not have been competitive otherwise
- [J] Was the opposite for the capitalism vs socialism that I saw. 2 socialist, was 95% that there would still be 2 socialists or more
- [A] Want to figure out a good format, for upcoming Foresight Institute’s Vision Weekend (using Manifold)
- The host (James) did a good job plugging Manifold before each debate.
- None of the debaters referenced the market.
- I saw a few people (5ish?) scan the QR code on their phones, but not much irl audience participation.
- Nearly all the engagement came from YT audience
- QR code seemed to be a good experience. No one had any issues, to my knowledge.
- Audience of 50 people, at peak about 5 people, so less than 10%. Live bettors were less engaged
- People were focusing on the debate; the debaters didn’t refer to the market price
- [J] Could they see the price? [S] it wasn’t visible to them
- It was really cool to see the probability change in real-time in response to what people were saying!
- Would have been a lot better if graph showed only last hour of price changes
- [S] Debate with Leo in the beginning
- [A] is this such a good product that other people would buy it? It doesn’t sound too much like it’s good for in person.
- [s] It was good for the stream viewers. It has potential for in-person but it’s not there yet.
- The irl audience
- Most had never heard of Manifold
- A few people who had never heard of it before told me they thought it was really cool!
- People who had heard of Manifold previously:
- Destiny fan
- Used the site a lot after initial Destiny push, but has been less active recently
- One reason for inactivity: Doesn’t want to jeopardize current profitable track record(!)
- [i] we need that profit reset button
- Austin-based rationalist
- reader of ACX, etc.
- user of other prediction markets (tradesports / intrade)