Introductory Slack post:

Hey team, I’d like to invite you to #manifold-markets to try out a new tool I’m trialing for our team.

Manifold Markets is a prediction market platform that allows anyone to create a market on a given question and buy or sell play-money shares in any market.

For example, I’ve created a market called “Will Deposits and Disbursements capabilities be launched to all employees in May 2022?” If you think this will happen, you can “buy” shares of “Yes”. If you don’t think this will happen, you can buy “No” shares.

The purpose of this tool is to help improve our decisions and assessment of risks across the program. In the example above, if I see that many of you are buying “No”, that will incentivize me and the leadership team to dig deeper into and mitigate the risks surrounding that release.

I’m also hoping this can be a bit fun too. See my market titled “Will Paul still have a mustache on March 1st?”

For a link and more information and guidelines around use of this tool, please join us in #manifold-markets.

Post in #manifold-markets:

Team, thanks for your interest in trying out Manifold Markets. Prior to signing up (link below), please review the following goals, key things to know, and guidelines:

• Goals
  • Improve decision-making and quantitatively assess risks
  • Encourage sharing of key information and insight, regardless of role
  • Have a bit of fun!
• Key things to know
  • Anyone can create a market
  • The person who creates a market has full discretion over how it resolves
  • There are three main ways a market can resolve:
    • Yes/no: the market resolves to the answer Yes or No
    • PROB: the market resolves to the probability of the market-maker’s choosing
    • Free response: the market resolves to one or more multiple-choice-style answers
  • Creating a market is not anonymous
  • Trading is anonymous, unless you add a comment, in which case neither your trade nor comment will be anonymous