- Sounds interesting
- Will people use it?
- We are pretty good at publicity
- Will people feel bad shorting these kinds of markets?
- Might give you bad incentives
- [J] How it works
- Only on people who have a profile
- Will people reject who reject get the mana as if they bet as far NO as possible
- Dating bounties for 6 months
- Buy back mana that people made on your markets
- [J] Just add liquidity
- Biggest problems
- Early stages of dating and conveying interest: plausible deniability and ambiguities
- Went well vs ok and still want to see them again
- Could be weird to be scored
- Betting on that could broach taboos
- Seems a bad thing for healthiness of a relationship to be forecast
- Positive on will I start dating person
- But not good for betting on how long
- Had an argument with girlfriend don’t want friend to bet
- Close the market before it resolves
- [J] Include new markets that users create, like on manifold
- Opposed, someone could create a market about you kissing the girl, which
- I think it would be net-negative?
- Could have compatibility algorithm
- Or could be third parties
- Show two people who could be a match (base line compatibilty), and let you bet
- Recently created matches? Or greater than a certain probability
- “Will they go on a date?”, “Will they enjoy going on a date?”
- Markets on every pair. Start low
- [J] Pick one person and then look at possible partners for them
- [D] Yeah, like for one of your friends
- [J] Mode in UI where you pick on person
- If it was someone who was never suggested before, show the market at 1%, because there might be a trivial barrier to creating the market.
- [J] Show 0% until market created
- [D] Market where probability moves logarithmically
- 1% to 10% is highly significantly
- Very steep curve, only a few get high
- log odds
- More liquidity at low probabilities
- If going for 6 month thing!
- Will happen very rarely, none within 6 months
- Consider going
- [J] Have both 6 months and 2nd date
- Prefer not to have secondary markets on manifold.love
- But people could post on regular manifold
- More sensation than useful
- Wouldn’t want markets on details of his relationship
- [J] What would be true about who I marry? Example
- [D] Marriage is too far out
- Romantic futarchy,
- [J] Would you sign up?
- [D] Would consider it
- Vibes on dating docs are a little “eh”.
- This is a more open profile
- In Vermont. Would be surprised if there are more than 3 female users
- But if in the Bay, a decent chance
- Possibly, in vermont. Still iffy on public dating docs. Telling it to the algorithm / AI in the future seems nicer
- Will sign up to match other people
- One idea: only let you see profiles randomly
- Two options: random share of profiles
- Choose a friend and try to find matches randomly
- [D] Agree there is a vibes difference between this idea and date docs
- Not sure if I will create a profile, but maybe
- Appreciate what you’re doing. Much better than incentives of most apps
- [D] Could be more normie than most Manifold
- [D] How to monetize?
- [J] Buy more liquidity for your markets
- [J] Buy mana to bet
- [D] Donate some amount for romantic success
- A norm like this would help our site
- Kola, roommate, might want to use our site