https://www.mercatus.org/emergent-ventures

My project will affect*

USA

No specified area

Are you applying for a fellowship, a grant, or are you undecided at this time?*

EV Grant

How do you describe your idea in a tweet?*

User-created play-money prediction markets

Please provide a summary of your proposal*

The proposal should consist of a proposal no longer than 1500 words. You may also attach supplementary materials, but we will read the proposal first and it must stand on its own.

• The first part of the proposal should be about you. Tell us your personal story, and how it relates to what you wish to do. We probably don't care much about your formal education, credentials, or awards, unless they're particularly germane to who you are or your idea. Do tell us your background briefly, but credentials are not what will impress us.
• Second, what is one mainstream or "consensus" view that you absolutely agree with? (This is our version of a "trick" question, reversing the now-fashionable contrarianism.)
• The third part should be about your idea. Convince us that this is a great idea worth investing in, and tell us what is new or unusual in your vision and understanding. What's the problem you intend to solve? If you have a ballpark budget (with revenue sources and expenses), let us know the bare basics now; we won't hold you to it strictly.

Also (if applicable) tell us how long you have been working on this project or idea, whether you will be working on it full time or part time, any existing formal or informal partnerships or supporters, and how you might intend to reach your users or audience.

Background:

Some of the first dollars that I ever earned came from writing a Python script to arbitrage prediction markets on Intrade, the now-defunct Irish prediction market platform, circa 2011. I’ve been thinking about and participating in prediction markets ever since. But it was not until my brother James and I started thinking about ways to use crypto to create a prediction market, that we hit upon our current idea.

Our first realization was that was that by allowing users to resolve their own questions—and trusting the market to bet only on questions where the creator decides things fairly— we could create a scalable platform where people could create a market on any question.

Our second realization was that by starting with a play-money platform, we could escape the numerous regulations preventing prediction markets from seeing mass adoption, and make it orders of magnitude easier for anyone to sign up, participate, and share any market. (And that contrary to most people’s expectations, there is substantial evidence that play-money markets work: http://www.electronicmarkets.org/fileadmin/user_upload/doc/Issues/Volume_16/Issue_01/V16I1_Statistical_Tests_of_Real-Money_versus_Play-Money_Prediction_Markets.pdf)