While Manifold does have some game-like incentives and people have fun by taking advantage of small loopholes and technicalities, creators are expected to not do so on their own markets.
Creators are expected to clarify resolution criteria if too vague or if events happen which leads to the original criteria no longer being functional.
Markets have 3 states which can all independently be toggled by admin and moderators users. Ranked, Subsidised and Unlisted.
Ranked
- All markets are ranked by default. This means it counts towards leagues.
- A market may be changed to unranked by admin and moderators if it meets any of the following. If you aren’t sure why your market is unranked, feel free to tag @sirsalty.
- Unlisted markets are always considered unranked automatically. Even if the unranked toggle suggests otherwise.
- Market is self-referential.
- Market is about the results of Leagues.
- Market resolves to something purely random/gambling-like. For example, “If I flip a coin will it be heads”.
- Market resolution criteria can only be known by the creator/immediate friends eg. “Will I eat pizza tonight?” or “Will I go on a date?”
- The only exception where these markets will be ranked is if they opt to not trade, don’t provide insider advantages to friends, and can provide concrete evidence which is outlined at market creation, then it will not be marked as unranked.
- Market isn’t predicting anything.
- Market is about something that can never be resolved (eg. “Will all humans die by AI”?) or could only ever resolve one way.
Subsidized
- All market creators receive 5 mana for each of the first 50 unique traders on a market (excluding the creator). This then drops to 1 mana until a cap of 10,000 traders.
- All markets receive 20 mana liquidity subsidy from the house for each of the first 50 unique traders. This then drops to 5 mana until a cap of 10,000 traders.
- A creator may stop receiving these bonuses on a specific market for any of the following reasons. This may be applied after some initial bonuses are received and will not retroactively remove bonuses. If a market falls under the following but seems valuable, it may still be left subsidised.
- Unlisted markets are never subsidised by default.
- Market is self-referential.
- Market resolves to something to something purely random/gambling-like.
- Market is considered spam or extremely low quality. Eg. “Will the sun explode tomorrow?”
- Markets which have coded titles are fine as long as people can interpret them once they read the description.
- Market is about something that can never be resolved (eg. “Will all humans die by AI”?) or could only ever resolve one way.
- Market is an exact, or close to exact, duplicate of an existing market.
- Market falls under the section below, but isn’t bad enough to be unlisted/deleted.
Markets which may be unlisted, N/A’d or deleted
Below are criteria which may lead to action being taken against a market. We usually default to unlisting markets and are quite lenient. This makes it only discoverable with a URL. However, depending on the severity, some may be N/A’d or even deleted.
For some of these we won’t always take action. E.g. we may leave a few fun/gambling-like markets listed as people enjoy them.
Mods should only unlist markets if they are spammy, dangerous, illegal, or very low-quality “fun” markets. Otherwise, they should refer to an admin.
If you aren’t sure you probably shouldn’t do it. Otherwise, ask @SirSalty in Discord/Manifold.
- Markets which are abandoned by inactive creators and have vague criteria might be resolved N/A by moderators.
- Markets containing images, videos, or links of sexually graphic content or significant violence (including death).
- Markets that clearly encourage and could directly lead to terrorism or abuse.
- Markets that are hateful in nature including those that discriminate based on race, gender, sex, or disability status. When flagged these will be reviewed by admin and dealt with at their discretion.
- Markets with titles containing trending spoilers.