(by David)

We identified a problem - low retention - but instead of determining why it was the case, we immediately started thinking about possible tasks and looking at what other companies have done.

This was very bad. We should have first tried to scrutinise our site and figure out why retention is so low.

I hypothesise 3 main reasons why new user retention is poor.

1. New users not receiving immediate gratification and value. And not understanding the potential value they could receive if they stuck around.
2. Too much noise, things feeling too foreign, and not surfacing relevant content. This also somewhat plays into users not receiving value. Site is “interesting” but not relevant to them.
3. Users forgot about the site after d0.

Bonus:

1. Things being confusing - users give up before even trying because the site appears too complicated.
   1. This one I feel like we have already substantially improved so likely isn’t a big turn off compared to the others

New users not receiving immediate value

Sources of value

• Getting your question answered - pretty obvious, but something most new users don’t care about.
• Information - Not obvious. People don’t understand why markets generate information. The form by which information is presented is too foreign.
  • Market probabilities
  • comments
• Fun - takes too long before it kicks in
  • game of earning Mana
  • proving you are smart
  • betting against friends
• Charity - seems out of place. Doesn’t fit in with the rest of the site (from a non EA perspective).

Improvements

• Shorten length of gamified elements
• Have some sort of daily resolving markets/24 hour markets