To the investors of Manifold:

Top asks

• Bet: What will be the highest impact outreach initiative for Manifold in Q4 2023?

Key developments

• Metrics

  

• Manifold.love: We built and launched an entire dating platform making use of our prediction markets in a couple weeks! The reception so far has been good. Our launch tweet had 560k+ views, and we have 500+ dating profiles created. Read our launch announcement.

  

• Buzz: NYT profile: front page of Business, 2,000+ signups; DEBATECON 4 sponsorship; House Speaker market blows up, shared by Nate Silver; Gaza hospital market went viral, tweeted by Matt Yglesias

• New features: DMs, market sets (collection of independent binary markets), simplified Boosts (internal ads + subsidies), Dalle-3 images, improved news dashboards, IRL mode

• In the pipeline: Manifold $30k Community Fund, market watchlist, streamer sponsorships, sponsored tournaments, Bet on love!

Quick thoughts

• Recent growth events like the NYT profile and Debatecon have shown that we can reliably onboard “normie” boomers and zoomers outside of our original Bay Area-centric cohort, if they are lead to the platform. Greater exposure is key.
• Manifold.love was built, launched, and promoted in a record amount of time (2 weeks). If successful, it could change the trajectory of our company. If not, it will not have cost us much and will still have generated publicity for the core platform.

Thanks for your support, and may all your bets be in your favor!

Stephen

Cofounder of Manifold