To the investors of Manifold:
Key developments
It is the end of the year and the second anniversary of Manifold’s founding.
In the space of a year, we’ve accomplished a lot: we’ve doubled our DAUs, 5x’d our MAUs and total users; had 1.7 million site visitors; sold $142,000 in mana to over 1,700 distinct customers; and created over 73,000 markets.
We’ve transformed our core platform from a buggy and slow prototype to a full-featured, fast, and reasonably polished product.
We’ve innovated on market mechanics and liquidity provision with our new multi markets, made news a first-class feature of the site, added gamification in the form of competitive monthly Leagues, and launched dozens of other features.
We’ve Manifested—i.e. hosted a pioneering conference that many have said is the best they’ve attended in their lives with luminaries such as Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, Byrne Hobart, Patrick McKenzie, Eliezer Yudkowsky, and many other notable names.
We’ve established ourselves as a credible epistemic institution on the world’s most pressing questions (SVB bankruptcy, Trump indictment, superconductors, OpenAI board drama, Israel-Hamas war, US & global elections), and received positive coverage in the New York Times and from many other respected journalists and thinkers: Matt Levine, Joe Wiesenthal, Tyler Cowen, Matt Yglesias.