To the investors of Manifold:

We’re ready to announce our biggest platform addition since inception: cash prizes.

We are still working out the details, but the basic idea is that Manifold will soon offer a curated set of Prize Markets that pay out Prize Points, which are redeemable for cash via sweepstakes. Pending logistical issues, we aim to launch this in 1-2 months. You can read more details in our newsletter.

The sweepstakes model has been used by online casinos/sportsbooks like Chumba and Fliff  since 2017 and 2019 (respectively). These sites make billions of dollars in annual revenue. (This approach was suggested to us originally by our lawyers when we were considering various options for real money payouts, including going offshore.)

We believe the addition of cash prizes will be completely transformative for Manifold as a business.

Once these changes are live, Manifold will be the easiest and most accessible way for Americans to bet on the upcoming election, avoiding the usage difficulties of crypto/offshore platforms and the restrictions and uncertainty surrounding PredictIt. We look forward to capturing and expanding upon the nine figure trading volume PredictIt experienced during the last presidential cycle and which Polymarket is experiencing now this cycle.

We will also have a very solid business model: We’ll make money from 1. the spread between mana purchases and prize point redemptions, 2. transactions fees on each trade, and 3. intra-platform mana sinks (market “boosts”, digital goods, etc.).

While we still have many details to sort out, we’re extremely optimistic about cash prizes, and our ability to scale Manifold to ever-larger audiences.

Thanks for your support, and may all your bets be in your favor!

Stephen

Cofounder of Manifold

PS Get your ticket to Manifest (Berkeley, June 7th - 9th)! Or become a sponsor.