To the investors of Manifold Markets:

Top asks

Key developments

It’s been an exciting month! Our San Francisco onsite was a huge success, and we have many transformative changes in the pipeline for our platform this quarter.

We are more confident in our vision than ever. We’ve seen the viral potential of our platform in markets blowing up on Twitter. And our overall retention numbers are rock solid (~50% WoW).

However, one big problem that we’ve recently noticed is that retention for our newest cohort of users is abysmal (D1 5%, W1 9%). Given that we are doing a good job in converting new users into bettors or commenters (35% conversion rate) and the fact that we are doing very little to draw users back to the site after the sign up, we think this is actually an optimistic sign given the amount of low-hanging fruit.

Our short term plan is to focus on improving D1 retention for new users by copying retention strategies that have worked for other consumer apps. This includes obvious things like prioritizing mobile notifications and creating a drip email campaign for new users, as well as less obvious retention hacks. One idea which we like is daily betting streaks, where users earn M$10, M$20, … M$100 for each day in a row they continue to bet. This is our attempt to adapt Duolingo’s extremely successful retention strategy for Manifold, and we hope that it can achieve similar results!

Thanks for your support, and may all your bets be in your favor!