To the investors of Manifold:

We’ve done it: Cash prizes have finally launched! For the first time in Manifold history, users will be able to earn real USD from predicting in sweepstakes markets on our platform!

The introduction of sweepstakes markets has been the culmination of months worth of effort and involved numerous operational setbacks. But we’ve achieved our goal of launching in time for the election! And our simple onboarding process means we are now the easiest way for Americans to predict the election and earn real cash!

So far, less than 24 hours after our public launch, we’ve had 624 users complete enhanced KYC verification to sign up for sweepstakes and over 20,000 in trading volume across all sweeps markets!

Our focus is now on setting in motion the marketing/outreach campaigns we’ve been planning for months, and working to increase users’ purchase amounts and trade sizes.

We’re super excited for sweepstakes, and continue to believe they will totally transform the trajectory of both Manifold and the prediction market industry in general.

Go ahead and get in on the sweepstakes action here for yourself!

Other developments

• Manicode: James, my cofounder (and brother), has officially resigned from Manifold to work on his new AI codegen startup, Manicode. He’ll be participating in YC’s new fall batch. We are sad to see him go but excited for his new venture. In exchange for incubating Manicode, Manifold is taking an 8% stake.
• Buzz:
  • Manifold receives extensive (and hilarious) coverage in Nate Silver’s new book
  • Joe Weisenthal, from Bloomberg’s Odd Lots, is promoting our sweepstakes!
  • Vanity Fair shout-out
• Kalshi v CFTC: Kalshi won their court case a couple weeks ago, with the judge ruling that they couldn’t be blocked from listing political prediction markets. However, the CFTC filed for an emergency stay preventing them from going through with their launch. Not a bad outcome at all, from our perspective…

Thanks for your support, and may all your bets be in your favor!

Stephen

Cofounder & CEO of Manifold