To the investors of Manifold:

Top asks

• Get your ticket to Manifest, our forecasting conference (Berkeley, Sep 22-24)! Nate Silver, Robin Hanson, and many others will be speaking!

Key developments

• Metrics

  

• Buzz: Dillon Danis/Logan Paul market tweet with 6 million views, Manifold-Salem Center tournament results

• New features: Feed UI improvements (market graphs, grouping of related markets), feed algo improvements, Questions improvements (‘For You’ personalization, browse via category), multi choice sell orders

• In the pipeline: Dashboards, [archived] Manifest 2023, Content strategy

Quick thoughts

• The Danis tweet is a taste of what mass adoption of Manifold might look like. Upending our typical pattern, this is a case of the top-of-funnel channel (Twitter) working very well and our intra-platform experience doing much worse (i.e. showing new users superconductor markets instead of more streamer drama content). We’re still working on finetuning our feed algo and category recommendations; once we solve these problems, viral events like this one will be able to reach their full potential.
• Relatedly, our foray into paid acquisition is showing results. We’ve gone from a CAC (signups) >$50 to <$9 on Google Adwords, and figured out which social media sites to focus on for the future. As we refine our marketing strategy, the CAC will fall even further.
• On the product side, we’re continuing to focus on new user retention and the onboarding experience.

Thanks for your support, and may all your bets be in your favor!

Stephen

Cofounder of Manifold