We’re excited to officially launch Manifold Markets!
It was only this December we hit upon our crazy idea of user-created prediction markets. After winning a grant from the blog ACX later that month, we launched our prototype and built up a small but passionate community around our platform.
Now we’re ready to launch! We’ve made it an order of magnitude easier to participate in prediction markets. Anyone can now can create a market on any topic from CDC recommendations (https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-cdc-recommend-that-triplevaxxe) to fatal shark attacks (https://manifold.markets/sam/will-there-be-more-than-one-fatal-s). And anyone can sign up and trade in seconds using our play-money currency. ****It’s as frictionless as creating a Twitter poll, but with much more powerful results.
Our goal is to create the largest, most accessible, and most impactful forecasting platform. We believe our user-created model can enable us to be the first platform bring prediction markets into public awareness.
We hope you will enjoy using our platform!
Thank you to all our market creators and traders for all their suggestions and constructive feedback!
Austin’s quick thoughts
Manifold Markets lets anyone create a prediction market on any topic. The blogger Scott Alexander described us as follows: “If every existing prediction market is Lawful Good, this team proposes the Chaotic Evil version: anyone can submit a question, questions can be arbitrarily subjective, and the resolution is decided by the submitter, no appeal allowed.”
Our goal is to create the largest, most accessible, and most impactful forecasting platform. We believe our user-created model can bring the forecasting power of prediction markets to everyone by making it extremely easy and fun to use. It’s as frictionless as creating a Twitter poll, but with much more powerful results.
It was only this December we hit upon our crazy idea of user-created prediction markets. Since then, we’ve built up a passionate community of predictors and market creators, including writers like Richard Hanania (https://manifold.markets/RichardHanania) and James Medlock (https://manifold.markets/JamesMedlock), who have predicted everything from CDC recommendations (https://manifold.markets/ACXBot/will-cdc-recommend-that-triplevaxxe) to newsletter subscriptions (https://manifold.markets/NuñoSempere/how-many-additional-subscribers-wil) to fatal shark attacks (https://manifold.markets/sam/will-there-be-more-than-one-fatal-s)