Manifold Markets on EA Forum

Links to prediction markets on Manifold now show a preview of the market on hover.

You can also embed markets directly in posts

https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/did-monkeypox-come-from-a-lab

[https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/did-monkeypox-come-from-a-lab]

This lets people bet directly on yes/no questions without leaving EA forum (experimental)

How

1. Go to the page for the market, or create a new one: https://manifold.markets/create

2. Grab the link from any of these places:

   • The copy link button (if you created the market)

   

   • the three-dot menu

   

   • The address bar

3. Paste into the lesswrong editor

   The format is https://manifold.markets/[username]/[market id]

Then, when you post, it will automatically turn into an embed!

Why

As discussed in [recent post] EA forum can use more epistemic rigor

Link to nuno’s essay saying why forecasting is important for world decisions

Much thanks to Ben West for reviewing the code for this, and for those who wrote the integrations of Our World in Data, Metaculus, and Elicit