Timeline: Jan 31 to Feb 18th
Notes
- Stephen: We should make our app better and more engaging, then launch
- Launch after more compelling
- James: We should be getting more users, we’ve built a lot of stuff already
- A: Right now, if I create a market, someone responds, I never know about it
- Launch asap
Initiatives
Launch
- Publicity blitz on forums: 1 FTD
- EA Forum, Reddit, HN, LessWrong
- Schelling point for everyone to come on at the same time
- Want: some kind of call to action to sign up now (aka Bonus $500 for early sign up)
- Q: Do we want to tell crypto airdrop plan
- [J] Nah, value is in usage, don’t want to tie our hands
- [S] Spread out content, can talk about for longer
- Defining our target users
- Courting existing internet communities
- Setting up new communities (folds)
- Notifications
- Email
- Proposal 1: Daily digest, on comments to markets you’ve created or bet on
- Proposal 3: Only emails on your comments
- Proposal 4: Creator reminder email
- Estimate: 2 FTD
- Customized Feed / In-app notifications
- Proposal 0: Little bell icon: someone has bet on your question. When you click, opens a list of things
- Batch by day by market?
- Look similar to how it looks of activity feed
- [J] We already have an activity feed, and you can already see all of them
- [A] Maybe not, median user doesn’t want to scroll through a lot
- Proposal 1: Replace homepage with all the folds you’ve followed
- Proposal 2: Include markets you’ve bet in, or created
- Estimate: 2 FTD
- Onboarding experience
- Support email as auth method: 2 FTD
- Has kind of worked so far
- Emails have more spam problem
- Longer sign-in: +1 FTD
- Choose your avatar & username
- Select top folds
- Select users to follow
First time actions +2 FTD
- Create your first market
- Place your first bet
- Subscribe to your first fold
- Cut down on complexity
- Write up how shares work
- Weekly Newsletter: 1 FTD to write, 1 FTD to implement
- Low hanging fruit: hundreds of people who want to come to our site
- Call to action: Give them M$ 200 for signing up
- Interesting markets to bet on
- Folds announcement
- Interesting folds to join (ACX one
- Mention renaming
- Sign up email: 1FTD to write
- Join our discord?
- Tutorial on how to create/bet? Tips?
- Private Folds: 4FTD?
- Proposal 1: Andy Martin use case:
- One admin, invite a team by email
- Fold contents are only visible to whitelisted people
- Additional admin capabilities?
- New kinds of markets
- Numeric - 2 FTD.
- Categorical 4 FTD
- Predictit: democratic nominee - add in new options
- Manifold plays Wordle: 0.5 FTD
- Trading visual experience: 2 FTD
- Support profit/loss views
- Show performance over time
- Show calibration results
- [J] Aside of rearview of performance: making Your Trades more actionable
- Being able to sell ones that have gone up
- If probability has changed more: come back and put more
- Longterm markets?
- On the explicit financial incentive
- Proposal 1: Demurrage
- Proposal 2: Explicit inflation for locked in money?
- On the engagement/returning user side
- Proposal 3: Short term derivative markets: 1 FTD, somebody sits down and makes a bunch of these
- Austin asks: Is Manifold going to make $2M by end of 2022?
- James makes a derivative: Will Austin’s market be >30% by end of Feb?
- Discord objection: Manipulate first market to make money on second?
- Stephen: manipulation is not that bad
- [A] Note: numerical outcomes might be important?
- [S] Black sholes pricing
- Proposal 4: Ban long term markets
- Better user pages: 2 FTD
- Big avatar image, description, cover photo ?
- Stats, created markets, leaderboards?
- Follow button ? / number follows
- social preview image
- SEO text
Won’t do