Robin Hanson urged us to find a high-value use case for prediction markets. He suggested markets on which candidate to hire. But markets on who should date might be even higher value (and more fun)!
See also Manifold.love brainstorm
Matching people into relationships is a killer use case for prediction markets because:
It is fun for traders, which means people will be motivated to bet and thus create accurate forecasts
Accurate forecasts of relationships are super valuable
People can’t look away. They even will bet on people’s relationships when they don’t know them personally. It’s too fun.
Prediction markets allow crowdsourced betting on who should date who with feedback from actual outcomes. Those bets will produce accurate forecasts, going on on Manifold’s strong track record.
Matchmaking is a forecasting problem, so let’s use the most powerful forecasting tool!
Users opt-in to create dating profiles
One main prediction market per person:
“Who will I date for 6 months?”