Pitch: New question type to let 2 people debate a topic, and others bet on who will win

Motivation

• Prediction markets are uniquely well suited to debates
  • Bettors invest into the outcome of who will win
  • Prediction markets can be created for each crux
• People love picking sides in a conflict
  • Premier debate material is very engaging & shareable
    • Especially if we can convince famous people (Eliezer, Destiny, Aella, Scott) to participate
  • But no platform is established as “the place you go for debates” yet
• We can raise the sanity waterline
  • Build out a much cleaner experience than eg Twitter dunks
  • Harnessing the toxoplasmology of rage for good

Example topics

• “Is LK99 a superconductor?”
• “Was SBF justified in how he ran FTX?”
• “Who deserves more blame in Israel vs Hamas?”
• “Is Anthropic net-positive when it comes to AI doom?”

Or Manifold examples:

• “Should we have invited Hanania to Manifest?”
• “Would it be bad to reveal what city each user is in?”
• “Should we do Manifold dating?”

Inspiration: LessWrong’s Dialogues

Announcement post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kQuSZG8ibfW6fJYmo/announcing-dialogues-1

Example dialogue: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iNYdKoGsh4ffxbQ5t/navigating-an-ecosystem-that-might-or-might-not-be-bad-for

Also inspired by Discord chats between Eliezer, Rohin & other AI Safety folks: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/34Gkqus9vusXRevR8/late-2021-miri-conversations-ama-discussion