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Manifold Markets is a platform for user-created prediction markets.

One of our most actively traded markets

One of our most actively traded markets


Our goal is to create the largest, most accessible, and most impactful forecasting platform by allowing users to create and participate in their own prediction markets.


Understanding what the future holds is a fundamental human need that influences all aspects of our behavior from how we choose to invest, to where we choose to work, to whom we choose to be around.

We believe that prediction markets are a uniquely powerful mechanism in helping humanity navigate an uncertain future because they rely on economic incentives to extract information from the crowd, rather than polling or expert judgment, which are more prone to human error.

Despite prediction markets’ theoretical appeal, there has been limited mainstream adoption so far. We believe this is due to two main reasons: regulation and usability.

The CFTC exerts a tight grip over the prediction market space, and has made frequent attempts to shut down, limit, or severely hamper the number and kind of markets we would otherwise see.

The second big problem is usability. It’s not enough to have a great mechanism for forecasting in place if it’s too difficult for average people to use or interpret. Previous prediction market platforms have been impractical outgrowths of academia or technically complex crypto products.


By allowing users to create and resolve their own markets on our platform with a virtual currency, Manifold overcomes the regulatory and usability issues that have plagued previous startups, and creates a frictionless experience for users to create, participate, and bet on markets.

Manifold’s differentiating features: