Let’s think up some predictions about Manifold, create markets on all of them, and write up our thoughts ala ACX/Future Perfect’s yearly set of questions.

Aiming for 20-40 notable, decision-relevant, and potentially viral markets.

Manifold usage

• 10k DAU?

• [D] If we spend $100,000 on marketing, will we have >10k DAU

• Any market get >10k traders?

• More page hits than PredictIt, Metaculus, Polymarket, and Kalshi in Dec 2023?

  • [J] Combined? To make it a higher goal and spicer

• $100k monthly revenue?

• ≥2 of these people create a market?

• Manifold conference with >100 attendees?

• [AP] Will any user-initiated Manifold meetup exceed 10 participants?

• [i] Will the market that gets the most unique traders in 2023 have something particularly unique about it compared to the markets of 2022 or will it just be the right circumstances?

• [i] Will the market that gets the most unique traders in 2023 be a personal market?

• [i] Will the market that gets the most unique traders in 2023 be about a public event?

• [i] Will the market that gets the most unique traders in 2023 be resolved mostly based on someone’s opinion?

• [i] Who will be the user with the most twitter followers to have created a market in 2023?

Manifold team

• Will we hire 3+ FTE?
• Will any founder leave?