Manifund is a new funding org that experiments with systems and software to support awesome projects. In 2023, we built a website (manifund.org) and donor ecosystem supporting three main programs: impact certificates, regranting, and an open call for applications. We allocated $2m across dozens of charitable projects, primarily in AI safety and effective altruism cause areas. Here’s a breakdown of what Manifund accomplished, our current strengths and weaknesses, and what we hope to achieve in the future.

If you like our work, please consider donating to Manifund. Donations help cover our salaries & operating expenses, and fund projects and experiments that institutional donors aren’t willing to back — often the ones that excite us most!

At a glance

Here are some high-level stats that provide a snapshot of our 2023 activities:

• $2.06M sent to projects: $2.012M to grants & $45K to impact certificates
  • Of the totals above, $95K that went to grants and $40K that went to certs came from unaffiliated donors/investors, rather than regrantors.
• 88 projects were funded: 54 grants & 34 certs
• $2.22M has been deposited into Manifund, and $1.62M has been withdrawn so far.
• Below are the top cause areas of projects that got funded. Note that these are overlapping, that is, one project can be filed under multiple cause areas.
  • Technical AI Safety: 27 projects funded, $1.57M dispersed
  • Science and Technology: 9 projects funded, $118K dispersed
  • AI Governance: 10 projects funded, $112K dispersed
  • Biosecurity: 4 projects funded, $97K dispersed
  • Honorable mention to Forecasting, which only received $76K total, but encompassed 35 projects. This is because our two biggest impact certificate rounds so far—ACX Mini-Grants and the Manifold Community Fund—were centered around forecasting and funded lots of small projects.

2023 Programs

Impact certificates

Summary: Impact certificates are venture funding for charitable endeavors. Investors fund founders by buying shares (”certs”) in their projects, which pay out if the project later receives a retroactive prize. See also our and ACX’s explainers.

Assessment: 7/10

Impact certs have been discussed as a much more efficient system of funding charitable projects. Luminaries such as Paul Christiano, Katja Grace, Vitalik Buterin and Scott Alexander have championed the idea, but apart from a few small experiments with retroactive funding, no notable impact marketplaces existed prior to Manifund.

In 2023, we built out the website and operational experience to run impact certs end to end, from handling project submissions, to investments, to retroactive prize payouts. We completed 2 impact cert rounds and started 3 more, each testing different setups and domains.

How did we do? I would describe impact certs as “working as intended, but not yet hitting product/market fit”. Some possible reasons:

• Impact certs are a 3-sided marketplace, and come with the implied cold start problems: we need to get a retro funder, investors, and founders all on board.
  • We think of the retro funder as the hardest part; they have to be convinced that it’s worth paying out money for work already accomplished. Most donors instead think in terms of funding things prospectively.
  • But finding good investors is also not trivial! The investors’ decisions shape which projects actually get underway; they serve the role of grant evaluators in a traditional charity ecosystems, which requires a particular skillset and dedication.