Mantic related:

• Will Paul Christiano pay any bounty to Mantic Markets by Apr 01, 2022?
• Will 100 people have signed up for Mantic Markets by Feb 01, 2022?
• Will Scott Alexander create a market and share it in a Substack post before April 1st 2022?

Other:

• Will the Warriors win the 2022 NBA Finals?
• Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces and/or law enforcement of Russia and Ukraine resulting in at least three fatalities before 2022?
  • ****https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2184-will-there-be-a-lethal-confrontation-between-the-national-military-forces-and-or-law-enforcement-of-russia-and-ukraine-resulting-in-at-least-three-fatalities-before-15-september-2022
  • Reports in the fall of 2021 indicated a build-up of Russian forces near the border of Ukraine amid increased tensions with the West (Politico, REF/RL). A qualifying lethal confrontation is one that results at least three fatalities (total, not each) for the national military forces and/or law enforcement of either side.
• Will Bitcoin be worth more than $60,000 before Jan 1, 2022?
• Will at least 50% of U.S. COVID-19 cases be from the Omicron variant on January 1, 2022?