% chance of success

• Today chance is 60%
• with a letter from an investor 70%
• Being a mentor at one or two accelerators 92%

Firms actual rating of petition approval was 99.3% in 2023, lost 3 cases, one of them they knew they were gonna lose but the person insisted to try, and one was unjustified (just unlucky with officers)

His standard %’s he gives out to people he is confident in

founders = 98%

critical employees = 95%

Critical employees who have to do some work to make it fit = 92%

Costs

• Max potential cost (w/o premium filing) = $14,460
• $10,500 upfront to TJ firm
• $460 for base government filing
  • +$2500 for premium filing (very unlikely we will need, currently base response time is 2-4w)
  • if Request for evidence (RFE) - TJ could charge up to an additional $3,500
    • Usually is $3,500, rare that it’s lower unless it’s something very minor
    • thinks there’s a “decent chance” my application will have an RFE.

Creating a narrative

• He suggests I position myself as a product manager with a background in esports.
• Things on the petition should reflect being important towards my position as a pm.
  • Manifold isn’t hiring me to be a pro gamer, so need to be careful how we frame things.