Prediction markets + mana, used to improve democratic processes.
Status: Thinking about whether applying makes sense
About the prize
https://openai.com/blog/democratic-inputs-to-ai.
- 10 x $100k prizes will be awarded
- June 24, 2023 9:00 PM Pacific Time: Deadline to submit grant application
- July 14, 2023: Successful applicants will be selected and notified
- October 20, 2023: Complete public report of working prototype and results
Ideas
- Futarchy/prediction markets, ofc
- “Which of these statements will best represent how AI will be governed?”
- Predicting polling (or other democratic results) via prediction market
- Impact cert/stock-like investment in outcomes
- (Manifund could run an impact cert round on the Democratic Inputs to AI competition itself)
- Mana-based or DAO-like mechanisms
- Quadratic voting
- Liquid democracy
- AI-augmented forum discussion (eg automatically steelman, clarify, reword arguments)
Should we apply?
Pros
- Prestigious if we win
- Could be a good marketing opportunity for Manifold
- Could be a great for fundraising down the line (Sam Altman likes prediction markets)
- Fun, exciting; mechanism design is catnip to us
- Manifold has a bunch of experience in governing a community of 1000 DAU
- $100k isn’t nothing
- Plausible path to saving the world
Cons
- Takes work to apply, and then more work to actually execute well on
- Splits our attention and/or brings on more folks
- Is this the thing that gets us to 10x growth?
- Be suspicious of work that is fun?
Staffing