Manifold has built a reputable track record and has exceptionally good calibration.
We outperformed all real-money prediction markets and were in line with Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight’s performance when forecasting the 2022 US midterm elections.
Our biggest advantage is being able to apply this accuracy to a wider range of questions with real-time odds that instantly react to the news!
We use prediction markets, which function differently from polls and models.
Users buy Yes or No shares to change the odds of an answer. The odds are reflected in the market price changing how much Yes and No cost. Buying pressure on each side causes the market to converge to a price that accurately forecasts the future.
It’s a little like combining the accuracy of sports betting and the stock market and applying it to predicting politics!
Watch YouTuber Rational Animations break down the details further.
All users start with free Mana (Ṁ$), the play-money used to bet on Manifold Politics.
You can use this to place bets. Earn more Mana by selling a bet early for a higher price than you bought or wait for it to conclude and win.
Mana can’t be redeemed for cash and is not crypto.
No, not on manifold.politics. However, our main site, Manifold Markets, does allow you to make your own markets. You can make a question about anything you want to and have other users bet on it.