Politics page

• Custom UI components
  • Electoral map
    • Port Senate map over
    • Governor’s races
    • Key House races
      • Clicking into a state will show a list of the key House race markets below
      • (doesn’t need to be exhaustive)
      • top races: https://www.270towin.com/2024-house-election/
  • Electability
    • e.g. https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/who-would-win-the-presidential-elec?r=U0c
  • Policy outcomes
    • If Trump/Biden wins… will x happen?
  • Probability change indicators
    • for daily or weekly movements
    • something like ⬆️5%
  • Key markets / articles
    • Show a carousel(?) of top politics markets or news articles (?) at the top of the page
    • Can be manually or algorithmically chosen (top politics markets that aren’t from the official acct)
  • Show Manifold politics retweets
    • See more discussion below in Commentary
• More gamification
  • The dashboard should encourage users to bet
  • Unclear exactly how to surface this in the UI
• Newsy layout
  • Include Politics-specific news dashboards at the top of the page
  • Current homepage design is ok, but a newer more designed newspaper-like layout would be better
• Landing page view
  • When the user is signed out, the politics page should serve as a complete landing page explaining the premise of the site to them and encouraging them to sign up
    • call to action: signup and bet
  • we should track users who land on the politics page and automatically suggest political interests to them, etc.
• How do we communicate manifolds’ accuracy on the homepage/quickly to new users?
  • Something like: ‘Out of the past 100 markets, when the market said 70% yes, they resolved yes 75 times. So most of our markets are within 5% of the true probability.’

News dashboards

• Curation
  • Politics page should have a separate, manually curated and ordered news dashboards
  • [ ] Home should have algorithmically curated news dashboards
    • we have too many ai, niche topics to display the same set in the same order to everyone
    • one simple idea: allow each dashboard to be tagged with topics
      • then we can do a simple check per user to put followed topics first
    • more ambitious version: dashboard importance score
    • [ ] [i] Get top 3 topics from markets in a dashboard, order dashboards by user’s followed topics union dashboard topics
  • Dashboard selector UI looks janky and often doesn’t work. We need to fix this!
• Fix now: Dashboards order should be live-updating!
  • this is a news product. If users have to hard refresh to see the latest news items, we’ve failed
• [x] Continuous scroll!
  • This is a great feature that should be everywhere
• [ ] Dashboard tracking!
  • See how many people are clicking on dashboards
• Dashboard leaderboards?
• Design
  • Current single-column card-based layout is uninspired
  • Consider moving (back) to grid-based layout
  • Using the same market card for everything is bad UX. Different aspects of the market are relevant at different times. We should disaggregate the market card into several different types
    • Simple: this just shows Question + Probability and nothing else
    • Graph: Full market card with graph always included
    • Multi-graph: Line graph w probabilities of several markets plotted against each other, with Question titles appearing in the legend
    • Timeline: Show the annotated graph of a market
  • Other card types to support:
    • Images
    • YouTube videos
    • Tweets
  • Link previews
    • include date!
    • We could be much more ambitious here:
      • The goal should be to created a great news-reading experience
      • Instead of linking to an external site, we could open up an iframe with the news story or something like that

Commentary

• Easy win: All users who are interested in US Politics should auto-follow the Manifold Politics acct
• User profile page “Comments” should be renamed to “Posts” and show market re-tweets first/more prominently
• Show a “Commentary” or “Analysis” news tab (or sidebar) on Politics which is all the retweets the manifold politics account has made (plus retweets on any politics market from any user you follow)
• Make the sign up to comment flow seamless / one-click
• Show tips on comments!

External outreach