Gwern: Prediction Markets
Vitalik Buterin: Tales from the Election
Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X1
Decision Markets with good incentives
Statistical Tests of Real-Money versus PlayMoney Prediction Markets
Timeline of prediction markets
Robin Hanson’s LMSR for Prediction Markets: Best intro to LMSR
Lecture notes on prediction markets / LMSR
Automated Market Makers for Prediction Markets: LMSR vs CMM (uniswap)
Zeitgeist’s “Rikiddo Scoring Rule”: Improvement on parameter choice for LMSR
$C(q) = b(q)\ln(\sum_{i=1}^{n} e^\tfrac{q_{i}}{b(q)})$
$b(q)=\alpha\sum_{i=1}^{n} q_{i}$
Based on A Practical Liquidity-Sensitive Automated Market Maker
Hanson's original paper: Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation
Wikipedia: Parimutuel Betting
Pennock's original paper: A Dynamic Pari-Mutuel Market for Hedging, Wagering, and Information Aggregation