Link: https://excalidraw.com/#json=hATP5XXOCY7QgEHb5P9PQ,w1hdRXAaSgzHyakAxbEp6g

Modifications

• Default upvote increment
  • Could tie to user’s current net worth, ala Kelly Criterion
  • Could tie to market liquidity, so that each click leads to a 1% change in probability
  • Could be user-configurable?
  • [J] I think using fixed amounts might be the best. But we can anchor those based on common market liquidity, e.g. M$ 100 liquidity.
  • [J] Thoughts
    • People are willing to tap/click a lot of times for more precision
    • Might not want to limit to filling up the triangle, but scale to higher amounts
    • One proposal: Start with M$ 5 and increase the amount added by M$ 5 each time:
      • 5, 10, 20, 35, 55
    • We can see empirically what works
  • [J] Arrows evoke voting. Will this confuse users as to what is happening?
    • Maybe put ‘M$’ inside the arrows. Or ‘Bet’
  • [J] Can wait to submit the bet for ~5 seconds so user can update the amount up or down

Inspirations

• LessWrong
  • When you click the first time, you add 1 upvote; a second click is a “strong upvote”
    • On web, it’s click and hold; on mobile, double-click
• Reddit, obviously
• Akhil’s Product Suggestions

3. Prediction Position

• Should be able to see what my position on a question is on the home feed, or prediction page
• If I'm making a lot of predictions, I might forget what position I took
• Currently only the prediction page shows info, and that too only how many shares I own
• Related to (2), a consistent UI element that shows some more info (Qty, Cost Basis, Current Value, Daily Change, Gain)

[Austin] We did think about this actually, especially when Loans just came out. I'm in favor, but think it's lower ROI than the other suggestions (it's a bit technically complex, I believe).

[James] I think these are good ideas. Very trader friendly.

[Akhil] One of the big reasons for suggesting this, is in order to drive updates to predictions. An overall question that emerges is whether one imagines a buy and hold approach to most markets, or news/comments driven updates to existing positions ⇒ more engagement.

Also, adding a position, or increasing/decreasing a position should probably use the same UI element. Click UP/YES or DOWN/NO followed by Confirm. Long press or multiple clicks have some amplification behaviour. Reduces me having to enter numbers using the keyboard.

[Akhil] re: technical complexity, You’d lazy load the portfolio data on most pages to be able to add user/portfolio specific context, so shouldn’t be too technically complex?

[J] Reasons this is not a great idea (April 9th)

• It doesn’t solve a need: it’s quite fast to bet normally, actually. The biggest barrier to betting is deciding to bet and how much to bet. Not the extra clicks
• People want to confirm their transactions. They don’t want to miss-click or have to tip-toe around our UI in fear of miss-clicking. They also want to see the payout and the updated probability before committing.
• People would prefer to pick the precise amount bet rather than quickly betting. The tradeoff for speed is not worth it.