Motivation

• Markets (and graphs of the market consensus over time) are antisocial and are no different than what other platforms provide (sure, sure, it’s bc they’re useful). Showing anonymous graphs do not utilize our comparative advantage of social betting - public bets with optional public reasons (comments) attached to public profiles. We should prioritize our comparative advantage, that of being a social media betting site and de-prioritize antisocial, anonymous features.
• Users don’t understand what our site is for. If we link the question and the best possible answers to the question right in the landing page of a market (where most users land) we stand a better chance at showing the user that markets are for soliciting answers to a question. If we can establish that link, we should next prioritize showing the participants’ the skin in the game.

V0

• De-prioritize the graph and prioritize the market’s best arguments (consensus and at minimum 1 contrarian)

• If there are no comments, show important (see below for importance score) bets

  

How it works

• Algo proposal
  • Each comment has an importance score made up of:
    • tips
    • associated, persistent market changes *
      • association such as: market moved 15% within a few minutes of placing this comment/bet and persisted for 3+ days
    • *commenter/bettor’s :
      • market position/skin in the game
      • number of followers
      • historic profit
    • • (this works for scoring bets)
  • The top 3 most important comments are shown at the top with how much they moved the market
  • Default sort in the comments section is the importance score
• Easier proposals:
  • Creator highlights best comments
  • Most tipped comment
  • Largest & longest held position in the market most recent comment(s)

Future

• First we should make explicit this is a social question-answer site by surfacing important market opinions up top. Then we should highlight each participants’ skin in the game - i.e. what they could lose if they’re wrong, what they could win if they’re right.

Discussion August 23, 2022

[J] Will comments be taken out of context? Are comments written in the context of what others are saying

• [i] Ideally scoring picks out the impactful comments
• [J] Skeptical of scoring. Hard to measure whether market changed based on specific comment
  • [G] only source the comments from those who are betting, correctly moved the market
  • Can we algorithmically determine whether a comment is yes or no
• [f] What if we let Market creator just curate the comments themselves?
  • [A] Substack has “Author liked this comment”, also makes the Author very obvious with a badge
• [S] Graph is interesting and useful
  • Showing comments first would be a lot of text, and maybe confusing