Referencing Standup April 19, 2023

I do agree with James that enhancing the core user experience is the most important thing to focus on to long-term large-scale growth. BUT… I think even if we achieve that right now, we still wouldn’t have significant growth…

Summary of previous discussion

• I made the point that Duolingo has very obvious value = learning a new language
  • Therefore product growth more viable as they just have to be the best experience for learning a new language.
  • Manifold doesn’t solve such an obvious desire therefore can’t rely so heavily on product-driven growth.
  • Marshall countered saying Manifold DOES have this: people want to be informed on news and stay updated on the chances of things happening.

Additional thoughts to previous discussion

• Yes, people want to be informed on news etc. but with our current onboarding, I don’t think it is obvious Manifold is THE APP to use if you want to stay updated and see interesting comments about the news.
  • People who see Manifold think it’s some sort of stocks/gambling/game. They don’t think “Oh, this app is a great alternative way for me to keep up to date with the news and current events.”
  • So even if we do solve that, it doesn’t matter if we do it really really well if when new users encounter our app they don’t get what we do.
  • We are too slow in showing people why they should care about the app.
  • The counter argument: If we improve our product so much that our core users really love it and constantly share it we will grow is a myth.
    • Carson spammed shared our site with his partner in an obsessive manner and it took months before she was willing to give it a proper try (because her initial impression of the app felt like it wasn’t a fit for her).

Being Habit forming

• Manifold needs to improve in the following:

  1. Be habit-forming.
     1. We do okay with this with streaks, but are far behind Twitter, TikTok, Reddit etc.
     2. Our current habit building strategies relies on user already being invested.
     3. We need to start building habits within potential super-users before they’ve decided they want to invest heavily into the app and care a lot about mana etc.
  2. Have loads of ways to engage users who would otherwise use the app very casually. See Converting DAU into Super users
  3. Evoke more positive and negative reactions. Make users emotionally invested in their mana and markets.

• Habit forming ideas:

  • Daily market

  • Daily push notification you see when you wake up that makes you check Manifold first thing every day

  • New users quests, get people on the site regularly the first few days after signing up

  • Think about mobile games.

    • I start playing a game I see and find the new experience fun, but don’t know whether I really will play it much long-term.
    • Was just a fun temporary distraction.
    • However, the game will give me a chest with some reward if I log on in 8 hours and click the claim button.
    • Okay, well I wanted to play a bit more anyways, it is still new and fun. So I’ll log on in 8 hours to claim it.
    • Have more fun playing it, the initial “new shiny thing” is fading now though. Not sure if I want to invest more time into the game, but there’s a chance I might. See I can claim another chest tomorrow when I wake up.
    • Well, I’ll log on and claim it. Don’t want to lose out on value, especially if there’s a small chance I will want to play it more long term.
    • Next morning wake up and have another session. At this point I’m already starting to get hooked, and may start logging on regularly to make sure I’m claiming all the chests I get every 8 hours.

  • Manifold doesn’t have to be so aggressive about hooking new users. But right now our current flow is:

    • New user joins the site and plays around on it, learns some cool stuff, bets on a couple markets.
    • Thinks, “Oh these markets are going to resolve in a month, I’m curious what the result will be!”
    • Maybe realises there are daily streaks and quests (although might not with our UI). And then if they do happen to come back to use it more maybe we see some of the effect of the mobile game pattern.
    • But there is 0 urgency to come back to the app in the immediate future. No sense of progression like a game might have. Only reason to come back is if they want to read more markets.
      • This would be enough, but right now our core experience isn’t good enough to leave a user hoping to come back once they have time so they can explore more markets. So this point definitely does support James’ argument and I do think they go hand in hand.