Initial seeding

This only occurred for the first-ever season. In future seasons this won’t be applicable, as cohorts will be determined by who promotes/demotes.

So what was the process to decide who goes into each division and cohort?

1. Filter out all users who haven’t placed a bet in the last 2 weeks. Only those who have traded recently get seeded into a cohort.
2. Rank users by how similar their interest vector is.
   • We use Open AI’s embeddings to give each user an interest vector based on what markets and groups they interact with.
   • This is the same thing we use to generate each user’s customised home feed.
3. Rank users by the number of trades in the past 2 weeks
4. Rank users by their user portfolio value
5. Choose one random user and then find the other 24 most similar users based on the above to create a cohort.
6. Assign the cohort to the appropriate division and give it a randomly generated name using adjectives and mythical creatures generated by GPT-4.

Adding new users/reactivated users to a cohort

New users get added to the existing bronze cohorts. Once all the bronze cohorts have 35 members we start creating new ones and filling them up.

Users who didn’t get added because they hadn’t bet in the past 2 weeks currently need to be manually added in batches. We still need to implement a system for this going forward, as we will probably look to filter out users between seasons who become inactive to prevent cohorts from having too many inactive users.

What counts towards mana earned?

You can click on a user in the leagues’ table to see a breakdown of how they have earned their mana and all the trades they have made that contribute.

• Profit includes both unrealised gains and realised gains.
  • Can be negative if you have a negative profit.
  • Unrealised gains: the change in expected value due to the probability changing since you placed a bet.
  • Realised gains: mana you win/lose when a market resolves.
  • Trades have to be placed during the season to count. If you sell out of a position that you bought into before the season started, then during the current season it will consider you buying shares of the opposite type you previously owned. So you could have “phantom” shares that contribute to your mana earned. If this is confusing don’t worry about it, just understand that selling is the equivalent of buying the opposite type of shares to what you owned.
• Mana from streaks, completing quests, and claiming boosts on the home feed all count.
• Trader bonuses only count if the market was created during the ongoing season. If during the season you get a new trader on a market that was made before the season started, it won’t contribute to your mana earned.

What happens at the end of the season?