Updates

What got done

What next?

[J] James

• $10 partner bonus per retained referral (bets on 5 different days)
• AB test new users starting on browse tab vs chosen topics above
• AB test showing free questions from the beginning. (And improve styling)
• 1:1 Inga, Founders sync, walk with Stephen

James

[s] Stephen

• 1-1 Tod
• founders’ sync
• biz tasks…

Stephen

• call w lawyer
• mtv schedule

[i] Ian

[out today]

Ian

[c] Sinclair

• new browse: remove seperate tab for topics, show user avatars

Sinclair

• back to the migration mines ?!?!?
  • [J] 😆

[D] David

• Austin 1:1
• James 1:1
• Mugiwara finalising contract, signed, giving lots of advice for Manifold and incorporating into Instagram memes
• ‣ working my way through and emailing every person
• Call with Joshua about Twitter

David

• Followup with Bigballleague
• other partner outreach
• call with Pathos to review first article
• Board my flight to England in the late afternoon
• Tweeting with whatever spare time

[iw] Inga

Inga

[JF] Joshua

• Twitter!
  • [d] 👏
• Conditional markets dashboard
• Tiktok Ban stuff
• GPT stuff
• Trump/RFK VP stuff
• Twitter dashboard

[Joshua]

• More Conditional Markets
• More Swing state stuff
• More polling stuff
• One piece stuff for new chapter
• More on Senate/House stuff
• Senate control in particular should get more focus/subsidy soon, some very important races

[A]

• Meetings, 1:1s
  • Metaculus wants us not to copy over tournament markets until their prediction is revealed, added a note to Guidance for running a market
• Announce complimentary Manifest tickets for mods

[A]

• Get MCF evals up

Demos

• [c] browse changes
  • [s] the icons are good but I think it should still say “Users” [a] eh, I think no “users” is fine!
    • [s] it’s not clear what the tab is then otherwise
  • [J] Topic filter is great
• [s, iw, joshua] conditional markets
  • [c] liked the previous version with trump & biden heads on 2 lines
  • [c] (unrelated) I love the swing states visualization
  • [s] “If Trump/Biden win…”
    • [J] “What will happen if” doesn’t flow to the event text.
  • [a] A bit hard to see at a glance that “48%” vs “60%”, which is higher
    • [s] +1
    • [J] Put a star next to the “better” probability. (e.g. 60% under $4 a gallon better than 48%.)
      • [iw] was considering making the higher probability one darker
        • [a] mmm - color shades are relatively hard to compare, vs lengths of lines, think bar chart might be better
  • [s] I also want to see Trump, Biden heads
  • [j] Only 3?
    • [s] could add more
      • [jf] thinking about subsidizing more and seeing which ones turn out different