Updates

What got done

What next?

[J] James

• Fix limit order client-side error
• New deal, including community call

James

• Call with Zvi
• 1:1 Sinclair, Ian

[s] Stephen

• announce A New Deal for Manifold

Stephen

• call w zvi
• call w bank
• pivot stuff
  • incl Charity Structuring Loans

[i] Ian

• new deal
• fix fees on numeric selling
• add numeric bet button to feed cards
• update denormalized user comment data in update-user
• wip: diff weights for diff actions in user-topic-interests table

Ian

• finish weights in u-t-i
• 1:1 James, Stephen
• optimize new feed queries

[c] Sinclair

• use portfolio history for leaderboard calculation. rpc instead of direct client!
• double checking the finances. it’s correct :(
• working on revalidation errors.
  • got into a rabbit hole on making ENV domain better

Sinclair

• 1:1 James

[D] David

• Making edits to announcement copy
• In call for several hours
• ‣
  • [a] oops I was also writing to New Deal Discord call
  • [d] np, looks like we mostly cover the same things
• How I would do ‣
• 1:1 Stephen

David

[iw] Inga

• thinking about new ways to format portfolio to include net worth
• working on stacked graph for prizepoints

Inga

• more stacked graph

[JF]

• Trump trial dashboard stuff
• Tiktok dashboard stuff
• Lots of talking to users about pivot
  • [a, i] 🦸‍♂️

Joshua

• a lot of requests from users to N/A markets, got a backlog there
• probably needs to be lots of moderation work in general
• Some mods resigning?

Demos

Discussion

• Pivot announcement and fallouts
  • [s] user response (uniformly distributed)
  • [J] I think we should send an email to users. Otherwise, they might not hear about the changes or check Manifold to see the banner. [d] +1
  • [A] my general proposals from New Deal Discord call
    1. Extend the charity cashout timeframe (to mid-May)
       • I also tentatively think Manifund wants to end the charity program after this
    2. Send out email (as above)
    3. Replace the 10:1 devaluation with an outflow cap
       • [J] No, this is just extending the problem to be with us forever.
         • [A] we can just raise to cover this? the franchise value of Manifold is much higher
       • [J] I don’t even think there’s much of a problem
         • [A] wrong framing — it’s not about what we owe but what’s good for the future of Manifold, in terms of confidence & growth. like, the thing that makes Manifold work is the trust that Manifold is the right place to go, that you can put your money there, that others also think it’s valuable. screwing with this is just a bad idea
           • [s] Making unsustainable financial promises is also bad for confidence and growth
         • [J] We are honoring all commitments and making a better site than before. They are just reacting in the moment.
           • [A] eh, clearly people don’t feel this way
       • [i] I think the outflow cap is a possible solution but it really depends on how new people would feel about buying mana.
       • [D] New users would think it’s very sketchy if there’s a cap for withdrawing and have less confidence
       • [D] Investors could be worried about liability with the cap
       • [D] However, user trust is pretty important
       • [J] Only acceptable path without the devaluation is if we raise money
    • [J] Should make it more clear that we will honor charity donations, including beyond April
    • [i] Users might be more upset at play money going away, rather than devaluation
    • [c] Should we announce we are trying to raise money to fully back mana
• https://manifold.markets/Joshua/good-pivot-bad-pivot-which-opinions
• [JF] Feel like the value of the time I’ve spent on the site is going down
• [JF] We think this is a good gamble if it works, but what happens if this doesn’t work (legally or otherwise)?
• [J] Email should say anyone can contact us by May 15th to arrange to have their mana donated at 100 to 1 rate