Putting lots of examples on this page but will really streamline it to the best ones. This is ultimately going to be a combination of a track record page and “pitch” manifold to unbelievers page.

Top questions people tend to have

• Are markets actually accurate?

  • People just bet on what they want to happen and are hyped by?
  • Can’t it just be manipulated?
    • Scott experiment
      • https://www.astralcodexten.com/i/85781340/scandal-markets
    • A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy paper
      • https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/biashelp.pdf
  • Do play-money incentives work?

• Who is actually running the market and why should I trust them?

  • Users create each question and choose the resolution criteria. Users who are have built up a positive reputation are more likely to get more traders. The Manifold team will also step in for markets which have an unambiguous resolution and were misresolved. Otherwise they may be N/A’d returning all users mana.

• Why are markets more accurate than alternatives such as experts?

• Markets accurate with few traders?

  • https://manifold.markets/vluzko/after-how-many-unique-traders-will
  • Do prediction markets with a low number of traders work?
    • https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/235244384.pdf
    • Conclusion, “Based on the results presented here, 16 or more traders should be sufficient to obtain quality predictions. Smaller markets may be just as useful, though they may exhibit biases of under confidence toward market favourites.”
  • Is there any data supporting low liquidity markets work fine?

• Track record with specific examples

  • 2022 midterm elections
    • https://firstsigma.substack.com/p/midterm-elections-forecast-comparison
  • Gaza hospital
    • https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/did-the-idf-just-now-blow-up-a-hosp
  • AI risk letter
    • https://manifold.markets/_T_Grass/will-there-be-another-wellrecognize
  • Trump arrest market
    • https://manifold.markets/Dustin/will-donald-trump-be-arrested-befor
  • SBF
    • https://manifold.markets/mr22222222/sbf-convicted-of-a-felony-before-20

• Manifold site calibration graph + explanation

• Links to Prediction Market experiments

  • Does money matter? An experiment comparing real vs play-money prediction markets.
    • https://users.nber.org/~jwolfers/papers/DoesMoneyMatter.pdf
      • Conclusion, "We found that neither type of market was systematically more accurate than the other across 208 games. In other words, prediction markets based on play money can be just as accurate as those based on real money. In this case, (real) money does not matter. The essential ingredient seems to be a motivated and knowledgeable community of traders, and money is just one among many practical ways of attracting such traders.”
  • Experiment about predicting scientific paper replication comparing prediction markets, surveys, and expert-weighted surveys.
    • https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1516179112
    • Conclusion, “We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.”

  Testimonials

  • Lex Fridman clip
  • links to places mentioning Manifold
    • NYT
    • Astral Codex Ten
    • TDN