Goal #1 - Increase top of funnel growth

Key metric: Number of people visiting Manifold from Twitter

Side indicators: Manifold daily sign-ups, X follower count, X weekly impressions

Main strategy: Post as many replies as possible as quickly as possible to any large accounts talking about trending topics.

Goal #2 - Increase Manifold’s rapport among existing communities

Key metric: X follower count

Side indicators: # of replies to Manifold, # of times Manifold content has been retweeted

Main strategy: Quote-tweet and comment on accounts adjacent to prediction markets & AI (and to a lesser extent rationalists or EAs). You will be shocked at how an account that has never engaged with any Manifold content before will suddenly start engaging with lots of your posts the moment you start commenting and retweeting their stuff.

A general overview of how X algo works

• Whenever you make a post, X will show it to a few people and then decide if it should show it to more people based on how much engagement it got from the initial sampling.
• Don’t worry about bothering followers by tweeting too much. The more content the better. Most followers will only see some of it unless they are terminally online and X knows they usually like engaging with all of your content.
• Any post with a link in it gets heavily penalised. Replies with a link in them will not punished the post it is replying to. So if you ever need to post a link always do it as a reply to your own post/reply.
• Tweets that are divisive (50% of people rally behind it and 50% hate it) tend to get the most engagement. If our sole goal was to farm impressions this would be what we would want to do. However, as we also want to build rapport we should only use this tool an appropriate amount.

Breaking down the 3 main posting strategies

1. Reply-guying to large accounts
   • Time is the most important factor here. Aim to be witty, informative, or funny, but it’s okay if you can’t think of anything and just post something pretty generic. If you are early and get some likes you will still get infinite impressions, this is the sad reality of X right now.
   • Some accounts to focus on are: Elon, Sam Altman, DOGE, JD Vance, greg etc
   • Aside from monitoring the main accounts to see when they post, you should find a trending topic, search for key words/use X’s built in explore, and reply to a bunch of them (can literally be the same comment to all of them).
   • It’s great if we have an applicable market that can be shared as a reply to our own reply, but most of the time you should expect to comment without linking to a market on these sorts of posts.
2. Sharing a breaking market
   • Occasionally there will be a market on Manifold that gives a unique perspective and is ahead of the news. Think back on LK99, Gaza hospital bombing misinfo or in the future maybe there are eg. Bird flu scares, China conflict escalation uncertainty, that we have long-standing markets on.
   • Search for keywords in the search and share the market on as many posts about it as possible. Try to do it in a way that adds value.
   • This is similar to reply-guying, however can be more systematic rather than opportunity based. It’s okay to reply to tweets which are a few days old.
3. Quote-tweeting
   • This is probably the single-most powerful tool on X. It allows you to build rapport with whoever’s content you are reposting and they are likely to engage with your quote-tweet giving it an initial boost.
   • This is especially great for building a connection with followers of small-medium sized accounts. Here is a list of accounts that are good to focus on: Twitter X accounts we’ve had success engaging with (it also includes larger accounts that would be better suiter for reply-guying to).
   • Whenever you quote-tweet, you should almost always be writing the same message as in the quote-tweet/something similar as a reply (effectively double dipping).

Note: None of these strategies involves top-level posting. Some top-level posting is good, but it should be things you happen to see as you use Manifold normally. Such as recycling content from users (comments on Manifold, Discord, newsletter) or sharing a provocative market that you feel confident will get a lot of retweets. You should be spending very little time thinking of top-level tweets.