Goal

• Have something shareable + semi-viral within a niche
• Not too different from existing successful dating markets proof of concept
• Would want people to become invested and competitive over potential matches
• Build strong, engaging narratives around different markets pairing people.

User path

• EA/Rat sees a tweet of someone they know participating in this event.
• Strong call to action that their friend NEEDS them to come predict/interact in some way in order to increase their chance of winning the event.
• New user visits site to help their friend out. Sees lots of similar markets that have interesting narratives that they can spend time reading and becoming more invested in the site.
• Decide they also want to participate and enter into the event themselves.
• Share their own market/dating profile.

Format brainstorm

• People submit dating profiles. These are then paired (via community or via Manifold?) with other profiles and an associated market is created for the match.
• Competitive aspect
  • Prize - All expenses date with your match (can even be remote where we pay for the match to order in food).
  • Tournament possible structures:
    • Free for All open to All - Anyone can immediately join by creating a dating doc. They can then browse other dating docs and create markets for people they fancy on if they will be in a relationship.

      • Maybe make winners be chosen at random weighted by probability of successful date * #unique traders

        Winning = correlated with unique traders will help make that CTA more compelling as by trading on someone’s market you are simultaneously putting in a vote towards them winning the free date.

      • Might be hard to build good narratives and get people invested in relationships beyond the dating doc information.

      • Would be cool to code something that sends a notification to people saying “X person has created a market on if you would be in a relationship with them!”

      • Only really works if we then actually provide a way for “matches” to start communicating with one another.

    • Love Island/Too hot to handle - Free for all within a pool of participants. This could be tailored with participants being voted out and new ones being added over time. It’s kind of a last couple standing game where after a while the group of participants remains more stable once some budding relationships are forming and viewers vote on which couple is their favourite and should win.
      • Pros:
        • Proven to work well on reality TV.
        • Very easy to build very strong narratives and get the community to band together behind specific individuals and potential relationships when the pool is limited.
        • Due to the selective process becomes desirable to be selected and has some sense of exclusivity. Once you are picked you are more likely to be committed to fully engaging (as opposed to just making a profile for fun and forgetting about it when nothing super exciting happens).
      • Cons:
        • Would need to make sure we actually have enough people who are compatible/live nearby to make pools of participants that actually makes sense.
        • Would be potentially higher effort to run having to screen applications and run polls to eliminate people from the show.
        • Probably doesn’t work that well online without surrounding media content showing the relationships.

What if…?

• People can browse through the date docs
  • Would change the automatic market created on the dating doc to be “Will I win the valentines event?” As individual markets will be created for each potential match.
• They click “Match” on any profile that catches their eye
  • This automatically creates a market on if the two people would end up in a relationship (this automatic creation process I think is somewhat important to make sure all markets across the competition are consistent and it also lowers friction)
  • Notification is sent to the person receiving the match informing them of the market created and containing contact details for the person sending the match.
    • Would need to add to the dating doc creation process a form that allows you to enter contact details.