Investor update 2/10/23

To the investors of Manifold Markets:

Top asks

Key developments

Metrics
New HQ: Just signed a lease for an office at 425 Divisadero St #300 in SF. We’re transitioning our team from remote-first to SF-first.
New features: Maniswipe v2 (very controversial!), Omnisearch (across users, markets, and groups), better recommendation algorithm, faster portfolio pages, group moderation tools, quadratic funding prototype, list view
New growth channel: TikTok and Youtube short videos, which have garnered ~4k total views in a couple weeks
Hosted a NYC meetup
In the pipeline: Desktop/mobile feed view, Private Groups, Discord Bot, Leagues, True Certs, Onsite: San Francisco (February 19 to 28)

Quick thoughts

Growth has been very disappointing this month; we’ve stabilized at ~1,000 DAU. We will continue to prioritize marketing campaigns (TikTok videos) and new viral features (Discord bot, Leagues).
Our database migration to Supabase has been going much better than expected! And the performance improvements are substantial.
Stripe has given us an ultimatum: restrict or end our charity program or have our account closed. We expect we will be able to resolve this by restricting our charity program to a small number of fixed potential recipients, instead of allowing users to add their own charities. Thanks to many of you for your help in navigating this crisis!
Now that we have a decent recommendation algorithm, we’re planning to move to a feed-based UI as the primary way for users to navigate markets. On mobile, we’ve launched a new version of Maniswipe, a TikTok-style feed with a swipe-to-bet interface designed to appeal to more casual users. It’s proved to be very controversial, with a majority of our power users actively disliking it. This month, we will explore a more traditional scrolling card-based UI and see if that’s better.
Come join our SF meetup at the end of the month!