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Our strategic focus over the last few months has been improving user retention. We have a constant stream of new users coming to our platform (~50/day), but most are churning. We believe the best path to improving user retention is transformative product initiatives that make the site more accessible and drive long term engagement. We will spend the next couple months working on these, and expect our usage numbers to reflect the improvements by the end of the summer. Once we get our user retention numbers a little bit higher, we will start seeing organic growth in DAUs again and will then know to shift our focus to external outreach initiatives.
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A month after launch, Leagues are quantitatively a mild success (we’ve doubled the number of people actively looking at them each week to 400), but qualitatively a major success (constant discussion on Discord; friends irl talking about their league ranking; members of the Manifold team using the platform much more). Unlike our previous implementation of global leaderboards, leagues add a competitive layer to our platform that’s accessible to all users, especially casual or lower skill users. I’m optimistic that this can be a massive tailwind for us.
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We’ve now implemented a full auction system for “boosts”, our internal market ads displayed on the feed. Our users have told us they love the feature, and so far a total of ~M250,000 has been spent on boosts. At scale, it’s possible boosts could account for a majority of our revenue.
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An important selling point of our platform that we’ve probably underemphasized is that our markets actually work. Now we have the live calibration results to prove it!
