See also Newsifying Manifold

Background

Today, a lot of people use Manifold as “the place to go to get news”. And prediction markets are a great way of interfacing with some kinds of news (see: Elon Musk’s antics; “Will this math proof be upheld”; Slay the Spire board game funding).

But there are some concrete problems with Manifold for news:

• One topic might have many associated markets, and it’s hard to keep track of all of them
• Some topics don’t have any markets, because it’s sometimes hard to frame an interesting story as a resolvable market.
• Once you’ve seen a market, you don’t want to see it again for a while (because it’s not new anymore)

What would a Manifold-native link aggregator look like? Could we incentivize users to submit stories, invest in up-and-coming topics, and thus surface high quality content?

Definitions

Hierarchy: Community > Topic > Update

“Community” is a group of people who share an interest. Example communities:

• Prediction market nerds
• EA/Rationalists
• Destiny fans

(These is the intended end-state of “groups”)

“Topic” is a stream of stories. Example topics:

• Russia vs Ukraine war
• FTX implosion
• Dan

“Update” is a piece of breaking news. Example updates: