Google Meet

Updates

What got done

What next?

[J] James

• Manifold.love!
  • Removed notifications page (slightly unsure)
  • Fix 500 error on markets page!
  • Linch on manifold.love
  • Rachel on manifold.love
  • Updated roadmap Road to MVP manifold.love
• 1:1 Sinclair, Ian
• Ideas which I will write up at some point for
  • manifold for job search
    • For every company you want to work for, chance of getting an offer conditional on getting an interview
  • manifold for your life dashboard
    • A page where you see everything predicted about your life

James

• resolve the speaker market
  • It was erroring on bet calc
  • Now erroring when trying to resolve
• Aella meeting
• Launch manifold.love MVP

[s] Stephen

• PredictIt meeting
• chat w Nathan Y & Salty on Community Notes
• Meet Tod
• 1-1 Alice
• biz tasks
• https://manifold.markets/SG/link-to-a-market-on-an-twitter-x-co

Stephen

• call w Aella’s team
• VC call
• videographer call
• marketing tasks

[i] Ian

• 1:1 James
• live updating comments and bets via supabase realtime refresh hook
• one comment per contract per feed
• remove all swipe references
• manifold.love tweaks

Ian

[c] Sinclair

• James 1:1
• think through some designs for multiple dashboard authors
  • I actually don’t really trust trustworthyish to not abuse dashboard curation powers. “this is interesting” is a very different kind of judgement from “this happened”. plausible that a small number of curators will do better than us though.

Sinclair

[D] David

• 1 hour CN planning with Nathan
  • and an additional ~2 hours spent researching community notes and brainstorming independently
• More researching for track record page and finishing coding it.
  • Why are academic research papers on prediction markets all behind paywalls 😡
  • Some dm’ing with Hayden

David

• Final coding for track record and publish
• Coding delete button stuff
• Brief response to Hayden to wrap up everything
• Talk with Stephen about $ amount for kick or keep sponsorship + respond
• Reformat out our proposal for CN Jay from our planning today.

[iw] Inga

• manifold love user profile tweaks
  • [J] Want to demo?
  • [iw] ok! [J] 🥳

Inga

• manifold love theme

Demos

• [i] live bets and comments via supabase
  • [J, s, c] 🎉
• [iw] manifold love profile
  • [s, J, i] looks so much better!!!
• [d] calibration updates (still in progress)
  • [i] amazing! Could add: ‘how many traders makes for a market I can trust?’
    • [i] imo it should give an example: at a true prob of 10%, our markets average at 9%.
  • [J/s] Collapse the fine-print on calibration, but leave a sentence or two that explains it
  • [s] 538 calibration page
  • [s] Show we are better than alternative sources, polls, other sites
  • [iw] the axes could be more clear, I imagine that’s gonna be the only thing most people read
    • ex. Y: % of questions resolve yes
    • ex. X: predicted probability (idk)
      • [d] yeah it used to be even worse (currently y=resolution probability which makes no sense). Could see making it even clearer.

Blockers

• What’s slowing you down today?
• Open Github PRs