Google Meet
Updates
What got done
What next?
[J] James
- Manifold.love!
- 1:1 Sinclair, Ian
- Ideas which I will write up at some point for
- manifold for job search
- For every company you want to work for, chance of getting an offer conditional on getting an interview
- manifold for your life dashboard
- A page where you see everything predicted about your life
James
- resolve the speaker market
- It was erroring on bet calc
- Now erroring when trying to resolve
- Aella meeting
- Launch manifold.love MVP
[s] Stephen
Stephen
- call w Aella’s team
- VC call
- videographer call
- marketing tasks
[i] Ian
- 1:1 James
- live updating comments and bets via supabase realtime refresh hook
- one comment per contract per feed
- remove all swipe references
- manifold.love tweaks
Ian
[c] Sinclair
- James 1:1
- think through some designs for multiple dashboard authors
- I actually don’t really trust trustworthyish to not abuse dashboard curation powers. “this is interesting” is a very different kind of judgement from “this happened”. plausible that a small number of curators will do better than us though.
Sinclair
[D] David
- 1 hour CN planning with Nathan
- and an additional ~2 hours spent researching community notes and brainstorming independently
- More researching for track record page and finishing coding it.
- Why are academic research papers on prediction markets all behind paywalls 😡
- Some dm’ing with Hayden
David
- Final coding for track record and publish
- Coding delete button stuff
- Brief response to Hayden to wrap up everything
- Talk with Stephen about $ amount for kick or keep sponsorship + respond
- Reformat out our proposal for CN Jay from our planning today.
[iw] Inga
- manifold love user profile tweaks
- [J] Want to demo?
- [iw] ok! [J] 🥳
Inga
Demos
- [i] live bets and comments via supabase
- [iw] manifold love profile
- [s, J, i] looks so much better!!!
- [d] calibration updates (still in progress)
- [i] amazing! Could add: ‘how many traders makes for a market I can trust?’
- [i] imo it should give an example: at a true prob of 10%, our markets average at 9%.
- [J/s] Collapse the fine-print on calibration, but leave a sentence or two that explains it
- [s] 538 calibration page
- [s] Show we are better than alternative sources, polls, other sites
- [iw] the axes could be more clear, I imagine that’s gonna be the only thing most people read
- ex. Y: % of questions resolve yes
- ex. X: predicted probability (idk)
- [d] yeah it used to be even worse (currently y=resolution probability which makes no sense). Could see making it even clearer.
Blockers