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How does resolving markets work?

Who resolves the market?

Whoever created the market gets to resolve it! Manifold Markets puts trust in its users to resolve their own markets in a timely and accurate manner. We generally will not intervene and resolve a market ourselves outside of exceptional circumstances. We do encourage creators to set clear resolution criteria in advance.

The creator is free to use their judgment.
- This allows for many new kinds of prediction markets to be created that are less objective. (E.g. "Will I enjoy participating in the Metaverse in 2023?")
Markets creators who are known to be reputable will earn followers and more activity on their questions.
Check out the resolution section in the community guidelines.

How should I resolve a market?

Markets should be resolved in a timely fashion once the resolution conditions are met.

If a market closes and there won’t be a resolution in the foreseeable future, consider editing and extending the closing date.

For Yes/No markets it is generally recommended to resolve fully to one outcome. Only resolve to a particular probability (PROB) if you have a good justification for it.
Resolving to PROB allows you to choose a specific % if you think the outcome lies between Yes and No.
- eg. Resolving to 70% would payout YES shareholders 70% of what they would have won if it resolved to yes and NO shareholders 30%.
When resolving Free response and multiple choice markets, you can resolve fully to one answer, or select multiple and the % of the winnings you want to go towards each type of share.

What does resolving to N/A do?

Resolving a market to N/A effectively cancels the market. We try not to punish creators for resolving to N/A as there are valid scenarios for using it (eg. conditional markets, controversial resolution criteria).

This means that:

All users who have traded on the market have their Mana returned to them.
Any user who made a profit by selling shares before resolution will have that mana subtracted from their balance. This could lead to a negative balance in some cases.
All liquidity providers will have their mana returned to them, including the initial M$100 it cost to make the market.