Introduction to Manifold Markets
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Limit orders allow you to place a prediction at a specific probability, rather than just the current market probability. This means you can set up ‘open orders’ that wait for other users to come and trade against. All open limit orders can be viewed in the order book.
Imagine you think there is a 30% chance or less that humans go to Mars before 2030. The market probability is currently below or at 30%. In this situation, you could set a limit order to bet NO at 30%. Whenever another user comes along to bet an amount on yes that would push it above 30% they will fulfil your order. In effect, you automatically immediately buy the market back down to 30% after they try to move the probability above it. If you place a very large bet, multiple users could bet yes against you until eventually the max amount of Mana you set for the order is fulfilled.
Maybe you are confident the chance lies in the range of 25%-30%. In this case, you could also set two limit orders. One to bet Yes at 25% and one to bet No at 30%. This can be done by filling out both boxes when submitting an order. You only have to put both an upper and lower bound if you want to. It is perfectly okay just to set one or the other!
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