Introduction to Manifold Markets
Help
There is a lot of easy Mana floating around waiting for you to snatch up! A good first step is to have a firm understanding of what various numbers mean and understanding how to track your portfolio.
Here are some other tips to get you started:
Find inaccurate probabilities
Use your superior knowledge on topics to identify markets which have inaccurate probabilities. This gives you favourable odds, so bet accordingly to shift the probability to what you think it should be.
React to news
Markets are dynamic and ongoing events can drastically affect what the probability should look like. Be the keenest to react and there is a lot of Mana to be made.
Buy low, sell high
Similar to a stock market, probabilities can be overvalued and undervalued. If you bet (buy shares) at one end of the spectrum and subsequently other users buy even more shares of that same type, the value of your own shares will increase. Sometimes it will be most profitable to wait for the market to resolve but often it can be wise to sell your shares and take the immediate profits. This can also be a great way to free up Mana if you are lacking funds and see a better opportunity.
Create innovative answers
Certain free response markets provide room for creativity! The answers themselves can often affect the outcome based on how compelling they are. Being the first to bet on an answer generally gives the best odds!
Sort by close date
This will show you the markets that will close the soonest. Most of these markets will tend to have converged to one extreme leaving not much room for profit. However, you will find some that haven’t. These are great to bet on as you won’t have to wait a long time for a potential return on investment.
Sort by newest
This may allow you to find markets which haven’t had enough bets to converge to an accurate probability allowing you to snatch up some cheap shares.
Advice on using Manifold
How can I track my profit and losses?
Tips on being a profitable predictor
Help, Guides & FAQ
How do I predict and trade on a question?
How do I ask a question and create a market?