Introduction to Manifold Markets
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Whenever you place a bet, you spend mana to buy shares of a particular outcome.
The number of shares you own determines your pay-out when the market resolves. Each correct share is worth M$1 at resolution.
We do a calculation behind the scenes to determine what the price of each share is. The greater the probability of the outcome, the more expensive that type of share will be. So if the market probability is 3% then the NO shares will be super expensive (giving you a bad pay-out), but yes shares will be cheap.
Due to the price of shares fluctuating with the probability you can potentially “buy low and sell high” similar to how you might on a stock market. Selling shares will always give you less value than waiting for a correct resolution, but may be less risky.
FAQ
Help, Guides & FAQ
How do I predict and trade on a question?
How do I ask a question and create a market?